Recently, in an article for a German magazine (Der Spiegel), Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki supported the Obama strategy of completing troop withdrawals and redeployments within 16 months in office. This, among other comments, surface amid talks of a "general time horizon" withdrawal strategy by the Bush administration. So much talk of withdrawal would suggest a benefit to the Obama campaign, especially as he is in the middle of a Congressional Middle East tour. Al-Maliki's endorsement should end critic's talks of Obama's foreign policy inexperience, vindicate his consistent rhetoric and allow him to be consistent with his foreign policy comments that have come under fire from Senator McCain.
This news comes to light, though, as "the surge is working" oratory spews from the PR machine of the GOP. Rightfully so, Bush intends to highlight one of seemingly few good decisions he's made in this particular war. Muddying the waters even further are the talks between the two countries of a "general time horizon" withdrawal strategy. Unfortunately, the Executive Branch has been careful to say that they only support this hypothesized plan if positive gains continue. The problem is the occupying force could very well wear out its welcome and turn the Iraq government against Republican policies...if they aren't already, that is.
Naturally, proponents of Obama's ideals would be optimistic of these developments. At the same time this could bolster the military credentials of his rival, Mr. McCain. If played properly, McCain could use this to show how his support for the surge was the correct decision all along. Mr. Obama would have to make the argument that there never should have been a surge or original invasion in the first place - a much more complicated and difficult argument to win at this stage in the conflict.
On the other hand, Maliki, once deemed as weak and ineffective, has been making great strides. First, he has reduced the Iraqi debt to the United Arab Emirates by $7 million after negotiating to have it erased. He has also begun the process of engaging Arab countries with Iraq after reluctance to the Shi'ite lead government. Additionally he's said that he would like to see an end to foreign immunity. The latter would definitely change the effectiveness of contractors in the war torn country, possibly rekindling hostility. All talks of Iraqi Independence should favor Obama, since he is looking to refocus forces in the Afghan territory, to chase the terrorists where they're most potent. Nuri al-Maliki even seemingly endorsed Obama by stating he agreed with his troop withdrawal strategy. Could a Muslim leader's endorsement help Obama or fuel the rumor that he's secretly a Muslim himself? He must take this and grow the sentiment in Iraq and neighboring countries to make it positive. McCain may need to acquiesce, which could show his flexibility or get him labeled as the dreaded "flip-flopper."
With over 80% of the country currently thinking we're on the wrong course, the right course is to have a leader that has coalescence around his ideas. Obama should be seen as a forward thinker and go on the offensive with the notion that he understands the issues. Also, he should make note that he's long purported that a military strategy is not the answer. Thus, he could actually win hearts and minds by helping to build infrastructure in a country that sorely needs basic services like water and sanitary living conditions. McCain would only ultimately benefit if he backs off of his stance that troop levels will need to remain constant because of the surge. The "surge," which is actually just a troop increase was always a short-term solution and must be positioned in this light if he's to elicit political gain from it. Still, his position is too precarious, and still sounds too dogmatic in his incessant need to get a traditional military victory. If played correctly, Obama should be the benefactor of the recent withdrawal talks.
